In this article:
Market Simulator Demo (Video)
What is Market Simulator? What can I use it for?
Market Simulator lets you quickly and easily understand where an innovation sources its volume from by predicting how a new product would perform against existing products in the market & which products will it take share from. It's a highly powerful tool to help you test your innovation for incrementality.
Market Simulator answers 3 key questions every product team needs to consider:
How does an innovation play with in-market products?
Does an innovation increase or cannibalize market share?
How can your teams optimize their product portfolios?
How does Market Simulator calculate the score?
Market Simulator runs a mix of choice modelling, advanced analytics and Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) modelling techniques to generate the source of volume data up to 100x times faster than traditional methods.
Share of choice always adds up to a total of 100 and be grouped in 4 different groups:
New
The share for the new ideas you are testing
Existing
The share for the ideas you are testing against
Total
New + Existing share combined
None
The share of choice that would go to none of the ideas present in your simulation.
Using Market Simulator
You can find the Market Simulator within the Idea Screen report mode tab. To use the simulator you need to click 'Run Simulator', this can take a few minutes (typically 5-6 minutes) as it processes the data. We'll send you an email to notify you once it's complete, so don't worry if you need to leave the page.
Elements of page
Card view
By default the simulator is displayed in card view, this gives you a broad overview of all ideas and how they interact.
List view
You can toggle to see in list view, this gives you a sortable list, allowing you to see at a glance what has been most affected.
Summary section
The summary section lets you see the comparison of all new vs existing ideas, including groups.
Idea Cards
New vs. Existing
When setting up the simulator you assign all ideas to be either 'New' or 'Existing'. 'Existing' are ideas that are already in the market and 'New' are new ideas that are having their impact on the market tested.
To show the impact the innovations have, you just need to click the idea you want to test and it will adjust the scores of the existing ideas and innovations.
If you need to edit your simulator you can use the 'Add New' button to add new ideas or 'Edit Existing' to change any of the existing ideas in the simulator.
Market Simulator Groups
Within the simulation you have the option to group ideas together, this gives you the ability to group all products in a brand or category together and see how new innovations affect the whole brand or category. Editing groups is only available to Space Creators or Admins, so if you need to edit your groups, you may need to contact them for help!
The Market Simulator is run on a per-idea screen basis, and as such, is not user-specific. This means any groups you create or remove will be added or removed for all users in the study.
To create a group, click 'Create Group' and choose the products you want to be in each group. Groups have to be mutually exclusive, meaning that you cannot have the same idea in multiple groups.
FAQ
How many respondents do I need to run the Market Simulator?
The Market Simulator needs a minimum of 100 respondents and the study must be at 95% completion before it will be available to run.
When do I run a TURF vs. a Market Simulator?
Business Question | Market Simulator | TURF |
What is our optimal 8-flavour assortment? |
| ✔ |
Which three claims will be the most compelling to the largest number of people? |
| ✔ |
How many colours should we offer our product in before we face diminishing returns? |
| ✔ |
Will our new innovation be incremental to our existing portfolio and/or the category? | ✔ |
|
Will our new innovation source from the competition? | ✔ |
|
Which SKU should we delist after we launch our new innovation? | ✔ |
|